中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)與CPI:關(guān)系、均衡與“十二五”預(yù)期目標(biāo)調(diào)控

摘要： 通貨膨脹率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率之間動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系的認(rèn)識(shí)是宏觀調(diào)控的基礎(chǔ),然而,目前在線性和靜態(tài)的分析框架內(nèi)未能揭示出通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的復(fù)雜動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。本文運(yùn)用1996—2009年GDP增長(zhǎng)率、CPI與M2增長(zhǎng)率的季度數(shù)據(jù)建立我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與通貨膨脹的非線性動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)模型(GDP-CPINLDS),揭示了我國(guó)最優(yōu)的季度GDP增長(zhǎng)率和CPI,以及零通貨膨脹的季度GDP增長(zhǎng)率?？傮w上,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與通貨膨脹處在次優(yōu)化的非均衡運(yùn)行狀態(tài),兩者呈現(xiàn)出同向性變動(dòng)的特點(diǎn)。最優(yōu)調(diào)控實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,僅調(diào)節(jié)M2增長(zhǎng)率不能完全實(shí)現(xiàn)"十二五"調(diào)控目標(biāo)。文章建議"十二五"期間要以調(diào)控GDP增長(zhǎng)為導(dǎo)向,以從緊貨幣政策為基礎(chǔ),配合多種調(diào)控手段,形成強(qiáng)有力的聯(lián)合調(diào)控機(jī)制,以確保GDP增長(zhǎng)率和CPI目標(biāo)的最優(yōu)實(shí)現(xiàn)。
The dynamic relationship between inflation and economic growth is the basis for the macro-control , however,there isn’t a clear and valid result about the complex relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth in linear and static framework. This paper builds the inflation and GDP growth’s nonlinear dynamic system model (GDP-CPINLDS) based on Mar. 1996—Dec. 2009 GDP growth, CPI and M2 growth rate of quarterly data. The empirical results reveal that China’s optimal growth rate of GDP and CPI is 10.51% and 2.06%, and the GDP growth rate without inflation is 8.92%. As a whole,China’s economic growth and inflation stay in sub-optimal and non-equilibrium operation state, both moves towards the same direction. Optimal control experiments showed that the only control M2 growth rate can not be fully realized target, GDP growth must focus in order to achieve "the twelfth five-year-plan"target and to minimize social loss. Therefore,we recommend that GDP growth should be oriented to control, and tight monetary policy is based, at the same time, established joint control of a strong mechanism with a variety of means of control, to ensure that the GDP growth and CPI target to achieve precise in "the twelfth five-year-plan" period .