各省區(qū)季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量評(píng)估

摘要： 國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)我國(guó)GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的質(zhì)疑重點(diǎn)已從年度數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)到季度數(shù)據(jù),從全國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)向地方數(shù)據(jù)。本文通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)一套較為系統(tǒng)且可操作性強(qiáng)的季度GDP評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)各省區(qū)的季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,整體來(lái)看,中國(guó)各省區(qū)季度GDP同各經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的匹配性較好,數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量較高,并不存在明顯的失真現(xiàn)象;從時(shí)間上來(lái)看,每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估,而每年三、四季度的GDP則存在一定程度的低估,但是這種偏差在統(tǒng)計(jì)上不顯著;分地區(qū)來(lái)看,盡管一半省區(qū)的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估,另一半省區(qū)存在一定程度的低估,但大部分省區(qū)高估或低估的程度在統(tǒng)計(jì)上不顯著。文章進(jìn)一步分析了其中的原因。
The suspicion of scholars both at home and abroad on the quality of China's GDP has transferred from annual data to quarter ones,and from the national data to the regional.This paper uses spatial panel data model to make an empirical test of the quality of provincial quarterly GDP by designing a systematic and feasible evaluation index system for quarterly data of GDP.The results show that the matching between Chinese provincial quarterly GDP and the respective economic indicators is comparatively well,the quality of data is also relatively high and there is no significant distortion on the whole;From the time point of view,the overestimation in a certain degree exists in the GDP data in the first and second quarter every year,and there is the underestimation of the third and fourth quarterly data of GDP,but the statistical deviation is insignificant;In the view of region,although the half are overestimated and the other are underestimated,most of this biased degree is not statistically notable.And furthermore,the paper analyzes their reasons.