我國非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)投入產(chǎn)出表編制與應(yīng)用分析

摘要： 隨著非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張,非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)與正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)逐漸增強(qiáng)。本文結(jié)合我國非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)特征對(duì)國家投入產(chǎn)出表做進(jìn)一步開發(fā),編制出1992年、1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年5個(gè)年份的非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)投入產(chǎn)出表;然后采用Leontief逆矩陣及其結(jié)構(gòu)分解技術(shù)對(duì)非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)的產(chǎn)出乘數(shù)效應(yīng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)展開分析。結(jié)果顯示:(1)非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)與正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)之間具有緊密的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)聯(lián),逐漸成為支撐正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ),具有拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的巨大潛力;(2)非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)生發(fā)展機(jī)制、非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)部門之間的反饋機(jī)制和關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制均有好轉(zhuǎn),說明非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用渠道愈加通暢;(3)動(dòng)態(tài)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)、動(dòng)態(tài)反饋效應(yīng)和動(dòng)態(tài)溢出效應(yīng)對(duì)非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率的影響在不同歷史階段存在差異,政府應(yīng)相應(yīng)采取針對(duì)性措施。
As the size of the informal economy is expanding,the linkage between the informal and formal economy is increasingly strengthen. Combining with features of informal economy,this paper exploits the national input-output tables to establish five years' informal economy input-output tables in 1992,1997,2002,2007 and 2012 respectively. It uses the Leontief inverse matrices and structural decomposition techniques to investigate the multiplier effects and linkage effects of informal economy. The results show that:(1) there are close linkages between the informal and formal economy,and the informal economy becomes an important basis to support the development of formal economy and a great potential for stimulating growth.(2) The informal economy's endogenous development capacity,feedback mechanisms and correlation mechanism with other economic sectors have improved,and the channels that informal economy promotes economic growth becomes smoother.(3) The dynamic multiplier effects,dynamic feedback effects and dynamic spillover effects on the growth rate of informal economy differ in each period. Corresponding policies should be taken by the government.