考慮后悔行為的灰色應急決策方法

摘要： 針對實施不同方案各情景發(fā)生概率不同的應急響應風險決策問題,提出基于后悔理論和區(qū)間灰數(shù)信息的突發(fā)事件應急決策方法.方法考慮到?jīng)Q策者的后悔規(guī)避的心理行為,建立了方案兩兩比較的灰色后悔-欣喜值矩陣,并通過計算每個方案相對于其他所有方案的總體灰色后悔-欣喜值對方案進行排序;最后,通過具體算例驗證了方法的可行性和有效性.
A decision method based on regret theory and interval grey numbers is proposed in this paper to deal with the risky decision problem for emergency response in which the scenario probabilities are different when implementing different emergency plans. Considering the decision-maker's regret aversion, we construct the grey regret-rejoice matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives. Then the comprehensive regret-rejoice value of each alternative relative to the others is calculated to determine the ranking order of alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the feasibility and validity of the method.