2016版CSNA有關FISIM系列修訂及其影響的定量測度

摘要： 《中國國民經(jīng)濟核算體系(2016)》就FISIM核算主體、核算范圍、核算方法、分攤方法進行了修訂。本文較系統(tǒng)地考察了系列修訂對FISIM產(chǎn)出和支出法GDP的影響路徑,定量測算了系列修訂對核心經(jīng)濟指標的具體影響效果。本文的測算結果表明,因采用2016版CSNA方法進行核算,FISIM產(chǎn)出提高了21. 83%,其中,核算主體修訂引致的"拓展效應"、核算范圍修訂引致的"縮減效應"和核算方法修訂引致的"調(diào)整效應"分別貢獻了FISIM產(chǎn)出規(guī)模提升的69. 77%、-72. 78%、103. 03%。FISIM系列修訂使生產(chǎn)法GDP規(guī)模提高了0. 33%。盡管第一次經(jīng)濟普查時已經(jīng)過一次調(diào)整,FISIM分攤方法的再次調(diào)整仍將推動支出法GDP提升,并使得最終消費率提升至51. 33%,凈出口率提升至3. 62%。FISIM核算方法的系列修訂不僅更客觀地反映出經(jīng)濟總量的提升與經(jīng)濟結構的優(yōu)化,也更準確地刻畫了利率市場化對我國金融中介服務的影響。
China's System of National Accounts( CSNA) 2016 revised the accounting body,accounting scope,accounting method and allocation method of FISIM. This paper systematically inspects the impact path of a series of revision on FISIM output and expenditure-based GDP,and quantitatively measures the specific impact of the above revision on the core economic indicators. The calculation results show that the FISIM output scale based CSNA 2016 method has increased by 21. 83%,among which the"expansion effect"caused by the revision of the accounting body,the "reduction effect" caused by the revision of the accounting scope,and the "adjustment effect" caused by the revision of the accounting method respectively contributed 69. 77%,-72. 78%,and 103. 03% of the increase in FISIM output. The series of revision of FISIM increased the production-based GDP by an average of 0. 33%. Although one adjustment has been made in the first economic census,the re-adjustment of the FISIM allocation method has further increased the size of the expenditure-based GDP,increasing the final consumption rate and net export rate to 51. 33% and 3. 62% respectively. The series of revision of the FISIM accounting method not only more objectively reflect the improvement of economic aggregates and the optimization of economic structure,but also more accurately portray the impact of interest rate liberalization on China's financial intermediary services.