擴大服務業(yè)對外開放能產生“制度紅利”嗎?——以北京市為例

摘要： 利用全國31個省級區(qū)域的GDP增長率數據,采用面板數據回歸合成評估方法,對北京服務業(yè)擴大開放綜合試點的經濟效應進行評估,回答擴大服務業(yè)對外開放是否能產生制度紅利的問題。研究結果表明:服務業(yè)擴大開放綜合試點對北京經濟發(fā)展具有顯著的促進效應,而且促進效應具有長期性,這一結論經過多項穩(wěn)健性檢驗后仍然成立。因此可以認為擴大服務業(yè)對外開放能夠產生制度紅利。
In order to answer the question of whether expanding the opening-up of service industry can generate institutional bonus, Beijing was taken as an example, The study uses data of GDP growth ratio of 31 provinces in China and the panel data regression synthetic evaluation method proposed by Hsiao et al(2012) to evaluate the economic effect of the comprehensive pilot project of the opening-up of Beijing's service industry. The result indicates that the comprehensive pilot project has a significant promoting effect on Beijing's economic growth and the promoting effect could be available for long run. This result still is right after robustness tests. Therefore, it is believed that expanding the opening-up of service industry could generate institutional bonus.