核能技術(shù)研發(fā)方案選擇的魯棒決策方法研究

摘要： 核能技術(shù)不僅研發(fā)周期長、技術(shù)挑戰(zhàn)大,還受科研投入、其他清潔能源發(fā)展等多種外界因素影響,導(dǎo)致其戰(zhàn)略選擇十分困難。良好的核能技術(shù)方案,不僅需在技術(shù)上具有先進(jìn)性、滿足多樣化用途,還應(yīng)在時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)內(nèi)盡可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。本文針對核能技術(shù)研發(fā)的復(fù)雜性,考慮被選方案的實(shí)現(xiàn)可能性,以及它們之間的兼容性。針對外部環(huán)境變化,考慮研發(fā)方案在不同情景下技術(shù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)值的魯棒性,提出了以用途需求和兼容性強(qiáng)為約束的多目標(biāo)0-1魯棒優(yōu)化模型決策方法,以降低戰(zhàn)略選型方案的系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在求指標(biāo)權(quán)重時(shí),通過在效用加性(UTA)反算權(quán)重模型基礎(chǔ)上加入部分指標(biāo)權(quán)重的關(guān)系約束,使權(quán)重更貼近未來情景需求。最后通過案例驗(yàn)證了該方法在未來技術(shù)選擇中的適用性。
Nuclear technology is not only a long process of research and development,but also a technological challenge. It is also influenced by various external factors such as national strategy,economic status,scientific research investment and other clean energy development. These have led to the complexity of the choice of nuclear energy technology. In order to reduce the risk of R & D,a good nuclear energy technology should not only be advanced in technology,but also should be realized in the time node as much as possible. In addition,in order to ensure the feasibility of the strategy of nuclear energy development,the variety use of nuclear energy technology needs to be taken into consideration. In this paper,aiming at the complexity of nuclear technology research and development,we evaluate the possibility and compatibility of the selected schemes from four indicators: research foundation,key technology complexity,state specific support and industrial application smoothness. Considering the change of external environment,we consider the impact of different scenarios on the four indicators of technological development goals( sustainability,economy,security,prevention and diffusion) weight,and use Euclidean distance to represent the robustness of technological development goals in different scenarios. Based on the constraint of demand and compatibility,a multi-objective 0-1 robust optimization model is established. In order to get index weight,we add some relational weights of index weights on the basis of utility added( UTA) inverse weight model to make the weight closer to the future situational needs. This model considers the influence of the external environment and technology uncertainty in the process of technology selection,and adds the use demand constraints,to provide decision support for future nuclear technology strategy selection. Finally an example is given to illustrate the use of the process model.