考慮決策者情緒更新機制的多階段應急決策方法

摘要： 針對決策者情緒影響下參照點的動態(tài)調整可能導致不同決策結果的情形,提出一種考慮決策者情緒更新機制的多階段應急決策方法.首先,描述突發(fā)事件下的多階段應急決策問題,并以直覺模糊數(shù)的形式刻畫相關決策信息;其次,給出決策者情緒影響下動態(tài)參照點的設置方法,并運用累積前景理論計算突發(fā)事件各個演化階段的情景價值,據此建立決策者的情緒更新機制;然后,計算各個演化階段的情景權重,并結合備選方案的期望價值、投入成本及啟動時間價值,計算方案在各個演化階段的前景價值;進一步,通過給出各個演化階段權重的計算方法,計算備選方案的綜合前景價值,并據此給出備選方案的優(yōu)劣次序;最后,通過算例分析及與其他方法的對比驗證所提出方法的有效性.
Aiming at the situation that the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers' emotions may lead to different decision-making results,a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with emotion updating mechanism of decision-makers is proposed.Firstly,the multi-stage emergency decision-making problem under emergencies is described,and the relevant decision-making information is described in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers.And a setting method of dynamic reference points under the impact of decision makers' emotions is given,and the cumulative prospect theory is used to calculate the scenario value of each evolutionary stage of emergencies,thereby an emotion updating mechanism is developed.Then,the scenario weights of each stage are calculated,and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the expected values,input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives.Furthermore,by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage,the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a numerical example and comparison with other methods.