中國真實發(fā)展指標測算及政策模擬

摘要： 克服了國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)指標的缺陷,真實發(fā)展指標(GPI)為判斷經(jīng)濟的健康程度和地區(qū)發(fā)展趨勢提供了更為準確的信息,實踐證實可作為GDP的首選替代。基于GPI理論與方法考察,構(gòu)建中國GPI指標體系,估算中國1978~2014年GPI的時間序列數(shù)據(jù),并分經(jīng)濟開放度、減稅、城鎮(zhèn)化三個政策情景模擬我國的可持續(xù)發(fā)展趨勢,從而提出對策建議。
Genuine Progress Indicator(GPI) is one of the first alternatives to GDP vetted by the scientific community and used regularly by government and non-governmental organizations worldwide. GPI can be used to measure sustainable development like green GDP. The paper constructs China's GPI framework. GPI values of China from 1978 to 2014 are estimated based on the framework. Economic openness,tax cuts and growth in urbanization are simulated based on GPI value. Some policy suggestions are given finally. Policies aimed at reducing environmental costs are necessary if China is to enjoy a sustainable pattern of non-declining economic welfare. China must pursue a higher rate of productivity in material and energy consumption in order to keep environmental pressures to a minimum level.